Getting even, it is said, is the best revenge. François Hollande has many reasons to celebrate his victory in France. He has prevailed, not only over Nicolas Sarkozy, but also over Dominique Strauss-Kahn and every other politician who claimed the mantle of political glory ahead of him – including his long time ex-partner, Ségolène Royal, who lost to Mr Sarkozy in 2007. For a ‘nice guy’ from central casting, life doesn’t get better than this.

The USA has suffered some further losses in the Middle East with the collapse of its diplomacy over Syria at the UN and, to add insult to injury, the announcement by the Egyptian authorities that several young American political activists may face trial.

The diplomat making the most noise in both instances is America’s UN delegate, Susan Rice. She used the word “disgusting” in the former instance and has entered into full finger wagging mode in the second. There can be little doubt now that she is auditioning for her next job.

Americans occasionally like a schoolmarmish Secretary of State: e.g. JF Dulles, Madeleine Albright.  More to the point, they can be useful presidential foils. But they pose a big risk. Rare is the wagging finger that stops or prevents a war.

[note: Talleyrand does not endorse the following opinion]

Dr Pangloss ventures the bold suggestion that not all in the world is as terrible as it looks.

1. The democratic upheaval in the Middle East is occurring at the moment of Europe’s eclipse. Therefore few people in either region suffer from the illusion that the liberalisation of these countries will draw them closer to Europe, or that Europe serves as any kind of beacon. This is not 1989 all over again, and reformers in the Middle East and North Africa will be spared the deep disappointment that surely would have come if anyone had his focus on a European light at the end of the tunnel. Self-reliance, however ugly it can seem at times, is a healthy thing.

2. The normalisation of diplomatic and economic relations is proceeding, however gradually, in East Asia at a moment of U.S. weakness and alongside the  American presidency of a man predisposed to the appearance of passive humility. Imagine if this had taken place a decade ago, before September 11^th, when tough talk about the Chinese ‘peer competitor’ was all the rage? A no-brainer, as Americans (or Taiwanese, as the case may be) like to say. At the very least, the Chinese now are trying harder to sound constructive. Not so a decade ago.

3. The long and inevitable American retreat from global dominance is taking place as gracefully as it possibly can do in the circumstances. It began in the 1970s, enjoyed a sweet Indian summer in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and now proceeds along its predictable course. Unlike the Soviet empire, it has not suffered a dramatic collapse and, so long as most of the rest of the world plays along and gradually assumes greater responsibility for the globe’s peace and prosperity, will it continue with retrocession, to everyone’s long-term benefit. ‘We’re only meant to rule this place so it can learn to rule itself' has never made more sense.

All this no doubt is premised on there not being:

1. A full blown military crisis with Iran.

2. A full collapse of the Euro.

3. A full blown civil war in Syria that draws in Lebanon and Jordan.

4. A full blown crisis with Pakistan and/or North Korea.

5. A full break between Israel and its long suffering American patron.

Dr Pangloss doesn’t think any of those things will happen.

Talleyrand has been thinking about the teachings of Teilhard de Chardin, and specifically about his notion of ever expanding structures of human organization which supposedly inspired Jean Monnet and other promoters of the European idea. Put more bluntly, this was Dwight Eisenhower’s solution to problems you couldn’t solve: enlarge them.

It is strange, even ironic, to witness the opposite taking place across Europe and beyond in slow motion. First the Greeks, the Irish, the Italians, et al, said it was the bankers’ problem to solve, then the politicians’. The French, Germans said it was the problem of the Greeks, Italians, et al to solve. The USA and China and virtually everyone else around the world say it is the Europeans’, or really the Germans’, problem to solve. And so on.

It’s not a case of passing the buck, merely. No, the pathology is deeper, or it seems so. Maybe enlarging problems was a twentieth century phenomenon; now we break them down and wish them away. Our global minds have grown smaller with our sense of possibilities and our courage. That may not be so bad. The problem however is that we are still living with a bevy of twentieth century enlargements that require constant care and feeding, with 'Europe' being at the top of the list.

Revolutions are made of the confinement by juxtaposition of mutually exclusive forms; in other words, when they fail to keep up with the times. One wonders what Teilhard would make of our current predicament. The more we try to break a problem down into soluble parts, the more we resist ‘contagion’, the bigger and more powerful it becomes.

The solution surely is to enlarge the problem faster than it can enlarge itself. But our leaders and governments seem constitutionally incapable of doing that. Papandreou, Berlusconi… They are only the first of many canaries to come.

Talleyrand is in another dyspeptic mood. The British secretary for defence, Liam Fox, has just resigned for reasons, ostensibly, of friendship. The Israelis and Palestinians persist with their bouts of UN exhibitionism. Much of Europe has taken its usual navel gazing to a new extreme, although this time with good reason. The United States has entered its ‘election season’, also known as the season of diplomatic hibernation. Meanwhile between three and five thousand Syrians have been killed, with many more to come. Yet reporters ignore them. Iranian operatives in cahoots with Mexican drug runners are just too interesting.

The showdown in Syria was predicted here and here. All the signs now point to a civil, probably regional, war. Who is preparing for this possibility? Will Western ‘electorates’ support the necessary measures to deal with the consequences?